BTC price foregoes Santa rally as Bitcoin volatility hits record low


Bitcoin (BTC) failed to deliver a Santa rally for Christmas 2023 as Dec. 25 offered even more sideways BTC price action.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin volatility index plumbs lowest ever levels

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD clinging to a tight trading range around $16,800.

The pair had stubbornly refused to offer any form of volatility through much of the week, with an absence of a macro trigger reinforcing lackluster performance.

“Bitcoin’s volatility is at an all-time low,” William Clemente, founder of crypto research firm Reflexivity, noted alongside a chart of the Bitcoin historical volatility index.

Bitcoin historical volatility index 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingView

He added that the total crypto market cap had retraced the entirety of its gains from its 2017 highs and was now testing those highs as support.

Crypto market cap 1-month candle chart. Source: TradingView

Trader and analyst Phoenix meanwhile eyed similarities to Christmas 2018, right after the pit of Bitcoin’s last bear market during its previous halving cycle.

The length of time between its prior all-time high and Christmas lows a year later, he showed, were broadly similar — 117 bars and 137 candles for 2018 and 2022, respectively, on the 3-day chart.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Phoenix/ Twitter

Worst to come in Q1?

Looking ahead, fellow popular analytics account Bagsy had some similarly uninspiring news for hodlers going into 2023.

Related: Xmas dinner table: What to tell your family about what happened in crypto this year

Next year, he forecast, BTC/USD would fail to break above $25,000, leaving the real recovery to its halving year, 2024.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Bagsy/ Twitter

Even less optimistic was analyst Toni Ghinea, who on Christmas Eve doubled down on his theory that next quarter would produce the next bear market trough.

This did, however, leave room for a final sprint toward $19,000 in the last week of the year.

“Last bull trap at 17.5-19k in December-January. Final crash to 11-14k in Q1 2023,” he predicted.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Toni Ghinea/ Twitter

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